Riding on the ‘Hype Wave’ of Technological Breakthroughs

Countless breakthroughs are happening around the globe everyday but very few hold the potential to change the world and the future. Due to our cognitive limitations and biases, we wrongly estimate the impact of the emerging innovations in near future and long-term future. Amara’s Law and ideas of Hype Cycle can provide insights into how a technology evolves over time from its emergence and how to spot the technology which truly holds the potential to change the future course of the humanity. Understanding the phases in the development of an innovation and its coherence to reality can help entrepreneurs, researchers, investors, policymakers and even a common man to have practical expectations from any technological breakthrough.

How to gauge the trend and acceptance of any emerging technology?

The Wheel and The Fire

One of the key differentiating factors that created a totally separate path for the evolution of humans from the apes and other species is the invention of tools. Right from the invention of the wheel and the fire to the invention of steam engines to the invention of the computers, smartphones to the invention of artificial intelligence – our tools to interact with the world around us keep on getting more and more sophisticated thereby uplifting our lifestyle. This is way different than how other species live, interact with the world around them and exist on the earth – our home, their home.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is equivalent to magic

Arthur C Clarke

Imagine if you traveled back in time and showed ancient Egyptians a smartphone? You may explain it to them as a tablet sitting in hands made up of the components built from sand which could show you the extremely detailed real-time pictures from the location far from their locations or you can send your voice and receive the voice from the other side. Given that Egyptians created some of the astounding engineering marvels that world has ever seen, even after that a smartphone will be equivalent of a pure magic for them.

Now coming back to the future- present times, if you are told that a company has built a device which can teleport you instantly to other planet, what would be your reaction? Though seemingly magical, it is just a fiction for us due to practical reasons. We haven’t even teleported an insect from point A to point B till date.

The Think Tanks For The Future

So, there is an limit to realize the practicality of every technology. Many technological breakthroughs are happening all around the world every day but very few of them actually change the course of the humanity. That is why it is very important to identify which technology really holds the true potential. The earlier one realizes potential of the technology, the faster and bigger will they have the grasp over the world, politics, economy and society thereby maybe the whole humanity.

Many think tanks around the worlds are always invested in the prediction of the future scenarios in global politics, war fares, technological breakthroughs, epidemics. These people are called as ‘the futurists’ who are striving to predict the long-term future obviously for the sake of readiness, survival and sometimes dominance. These futurists have certain tools in their kit which can help us to understand and point out which next technological revolution will change the course of the humanity in near future. Although we are not experts of all technologies and breakthroughs happening in the world daily, these tools can help us to understand which technology can actually benefit and uplift our daily lives. These tools can help an innovation manager to point out the technology which can create differentiation to his product in the market, these tools can help an entrepreneur to select the technology to boost his/her business or startup. This can also help a common man to gauge whether a technology claimed by a company can actually bring a difference in his life.

There are these questions we keep on asking ourselves when we are dealing with new technologies coming to our doorsteps, into our hands –  

Why Apple brings the technologies in their phones really late when every other device manufacturer has already made it mainstream and sometimes obsolete?

Why AI won’t actually take over the world in near future? Why EV’s may face a cold death? Why flying cars are still not practical and common product as predicted in back to the future? Why teleportation is not a reality and only a magical part of the today’s Science fiction?

What is the future of the innovations and breakthroughs we are making every day? Is there any way to predict the future value of certain emerging technology and built a product around it to create a fruitful venture/ business? How to be confident while investing in any technology based on its current condition or stage?

Amara’s Law from the futurist Roy Amara gives a deep insight into the phases every technology goes through and it also helps us to make any decision for given technology.

Influence Of Technological Breakthroughs On Humanity And Its Future

Roy Charles Amara was the president of Institute for the future (ITFT) an American non-profit think tank which works for the better prediction of long-term future. The prospects of ITFT include the exploration for the possible futures for the USA and the world, to figure out the preferences/desirability of these futures and to increase the chances to bring that future possibility into reality by finding out ways that support it.

Roy Amara gave a very important insight into how we as the human beings perceive future of any technological breakthrough and most of the times the masses are wrong about these technological breakthroughs.

Amara’s Law

“We overestimate the power and effects of the technology for a short period of time, while we underestimate the power of technology for a long period of time.”

Roy Charles Amara
Roy Charles Amara

In simple words, our expectations (positive or negative) from recent technological breakthroughs are always high and we are very skeptical about already existing technologies to be revolutionary and mainstream in the future.

Graphical representation of Amara’s law

Take for example the LHC experiments which were started in CERN to better understand the subatomic particles. Some scientists predicted that there may be chances that some small black holes may form in this experiment which would engulf the whole earth into it. Same fear was lingering around the Trinity test, where many scientists thought that the Atomic Bomb test would initiate a chain reaction which could ionize the whole atmosphere of the earth thereby leading to the end of the humanity.

But, look what happened? Nothing dangerous happened during the LHC runs, the runs confirmed the presence of Higgs Boson. Although atom bomb proved to be really fatal and formidable invention of humanity, the Trinity test at Los Alamos didn’t ionize the earth’s atmosphere.

In our times, people are speculating that the AI will take over humanity and will rule over the world by enslaving everyone. Now look what ChatGPT responds when you ask some fundamental philosophical questions? (Although it is excellent in certain tasks but there is still long way to go in order take over the humanity!) There are some examples where the AI image generator could not create proper images of human hands as the orientation of fingers relative to each other is “confusing” for the AI image engine. It is also known that certain biases can be created in the AI engine based on the sample training data provided, so there is still a long way for the AI to catch up with the humanity and there is no doubt that AI will totally revolutionize our lives but, in the ways, we are yet to imagine or grasp. (although AI has already revolutionized some parts of our lives already)

Amara’s Law points out a cognitive limitation in us where it is really difficult for us to predict the non-linear behavior of technology in the coming future. We human beings are very great in predicting the linear incremental behavior, somewhat ideal and constant incremental behavior of things around us. The moment we infuse multiple variables and some non-ideality in these predictions, we make wrong decisions based on our survival instincts. We “overhype” the technology’s potentials. For given technology people may think that it will revolutionize the ways of doing things and uplift the society, some think that certain technology will take people’s jobs and push society into dystopia. Look what is happening with cryptocurrency and NFT – the technologies which were supposed to revolutionize the complete world economy. Although, blockchain is there to remain forever as an excellent invention it will change the world in totally different way than people actually predicted.   

Amara’s Law is famously explained by the S-shaped curve to represent the difference between anticipated impact and actual impact of the technological breakthroughs.

Gartner Hype Cycle

Gartner Hype Cycle also throws light on some interesting concepts on the actual non-linear impact of technologies over the time. This idea was developed by an American consultancy firm Gartner Inc. named after Gideon Gartner who is called as ‘the father of the modern analyst industry’.  Gartner Hype Cycle establishes certain phases in the implementation, growth and acceptance of any technology.  

These phases are given as follows:

  1. Innovation/ Technology trigger – A new technology is presented to the world which creates intrigue, sometimes fear in the minds of the masses. The competitors panic sometimes for the probable upcoming uncertainties in business
  2. Peak of inflated expectations – As the technology is something new, there are very few experts to truly understand it. The hype build around it due to the insufficient knowledge of the media and communicators. This builds unrealistic expectations among the masses.
  3. Trough of disillusionment – There comes a time when this hyped technology starts getting implemented into real life where practical limitations keep piling up. Not only practical but also some economical, social problems start peeking this pile of problems. The expectations were already high and when such failures start becoming apparent to the mass users, the technology enters the rock bottom, the cold death
  4. Slope of enlightenment – After remaining in the abyss of failures there comes a time when the exact technology finds a better purpose for implementations; it’s newer generation become more people relevant more practical which people accept properly, where the society is evolved enough to accept it as their way of life. From here on this technology enters ‘the plateau of productivity’. The true value and proper points to implement the technology are identified and widely accepted in this plateau.   
The Gartner Hype Cycle

Many experts in the industry critic Gartner hype cycle as it does not provide any instructions or actions to control these behaviors for any emerging or disruptive technological revolution. One can safely say that Gartner Hype Cycle gives a generalized view on acceptance of new technology.

There is also an Extended Gartner Hype Cycle where after the plateau of productivity, the technology loses its value to the reduced returns to the business over time which further ends into the obsolescence – “the cliff of obsolescence”.

Key Takeaways From The Hype Cycle

When a policy maker, an entrepreneur, a manager understands the Gartner Hype Cycle, it will definitely help them to make informed decisions which can reduce risks and maybe save many lives.

Being patient and not getting tempted to ride on the hype wave is the first important response.

Updating the knowledge and current trends regularly will help in creating fruitful strategies against the hype.

Change is the only thing that remains forever and embrace this. Adaptations to stay ahead in the practical technology is the optimum move for any leader/ policymaker.

Understanding the long-term viewpoint from a sustainable perspective with the closeness to reality/ practicality immediately breaks the illusion of hype.  

It is really important for a policymaker, a leader and even a common man to understand that creating a breakthrough does not guarantee the success in the practicality of the innovation/ technology. The innovation even though called as breakthrough has to be practical, relevant and realistic.  

The Gartner Hype Cycle can explain why some tech companies wait for the technology to evolve and establish in order to deliver complete consumer experience. The hype cycle also explains why many startups who have found breakthroughs initially, fail to deliver at the end as the hype wave builds unnecessary expectations among the investors. ‘Edison’ by ‘Theranos Inc.’ founded by Elizabeth Holmes is one such example. The company was expected to create revolution in the medical diagnostic industry and was touted to be ‘the iPhone’ of the medical and healthcare industry. Look what has happened after that!

Internet and GPS (Global Positioning System) are the examples which were supposed to remain military secrets for years eventually have become the walk and talk of everyday lives and influence every part of our life now. (There was a time called dot com bubble which reiterates the hype of internet companies!)

Once you understand the Amara’s Law and Gartner Hype Cycle you can clearly see how any new technology launched in the market will behave in near future. It is not just about creating disruptive innovation to the market; it is also about solving realistic problems and understanding the key pain points of the masses.

Roy Amara’s Futurist Legacy for Predicting Breakthroughs

Any innovation which will truly impact the future should be studied for three main parameters/ premises.

  1. The possible – as the breakthroughs are practically ‘the trend breakers’, the study for their possibility should involve unconventional approaches that defy formalization/ structured-ness. There should also be some human element of intuition which gives a personal touch to such innovations. For example, the Science Fiction authored by a well-versed scientist/ artist who understands its practical limitations for today but anticipates that it will get solved in near future. (The motion capture technology evolved during the creation of James Cameron’s Avatar is one such good example)  
  2. The probable – defining probability requires to understand ‘what is connected to what?’ What action will increase the chances of certain event? Thus, the process of quantifying the probability of the success of the breakthrough innovation immediately establishes the chain of reasoning to its future projection.
  3. The preferable – Even though the innovation is possible and most probable but if it is not required by the time and the society then it may surely face the cold death. So, prefer-ability anticipates the societal, economical, and humanistic aspects to accept the innovation. If the innovation has no net positive utility, then it won’t come out as the most probable future. (For example, even though we know that the Grade 5 Titanium is one of the lightest and the strongest materials in the mechanical world, we also know that people can’t afford the cars made out of it for daily use as the costs of manufacturing will be exceptionally high which ultimately will get transferred to end users who won’t pay for it – even when it comes to saving their lives for the amount they invest.)

This makes it very clear that an innovation needs to be realistically possible, the most probable and most preferable in order to be called as a breakthrough which holds the potential to change the course of humanity.

These are the exact reasons why people over-anticipated the trip to the Mars when Elon Musk expressed his SpaceX proposition. Now that we are seeing how difficult it is to create a rocket, how many resources, how many allied innovations need to happen, how many relevant financial, behavioral mindsets need to evolve in order to send few humans (alive!) to Mars then we are getting hold of the practicality behind sending humans to settle on Mars.

This also explains why the flying cars shown in Back to the Future are not a common reality or way of life today, it still will take time or maybe it won’t happen in future due to some other breakthroughs (like teleportation!). Back to the future successfully predicted 3D projections, Video calling, digital currency, smartwatch which were possible due to practicality and relevance.  

Once you understand the Amara’s Law you can grasp that creating many innovations is not important to change the course of future, a single innovation which is practical, relevant and realistic is sufficient enough to change the course of the humanity. One can also do so by making the innovations implementable in real life,not every breakthrough guarantees immediate revolution.

“Our nations rely on innovation to improve productivity and fuel economic growth.  But to be competitive, nations and organizations do not necessarily have to excel at originating innovation—they have to be able to apply innovation successfully.”

Mastering the Hype Cycle by Jakie Fenn and Mark Raskino

References and further reading:

  1. Mastering the Hype Cycle – How to choose the right innnovation the right time by Jakie Fenn and Mark Raskino, Harvard Business Press
  2. Here’s Why AI Is so Awful at Generating Pictures of Humans Hands
  3. Why Are AI-Generated Hands So Messed Up?
  4. Views on futures research methodology – An essay by Roy Amara, FUTURES July/August 1991

Halo in F1 – One simple hoop design to save them all

A simple hoop design of HALO saved many precious lives in adrenaline filled, thrilling motorsport like F1. The story of evolution of halo in F1 tells us about the minimalist and functional design for safety. Not even single part of halo is in excess, unnecessary or unwanted. The designers and engineers deserve special recognition for saving important lives and maintaining the spirit of the sport.

Formula 1 is the pinnacle of the motorsports on the planet. It is the most intense, most tech-intensive, strategy packed and the richest sport in the world. Important thing to understand here is that Formula 1 is not just about driving fast cars and securing the first position on grid out of all the competitors. There is a reason why it is called “Formula” One. All the cars and teams competing in this sport must abide to certain set of rules on car design, sporting conditions and (now) stringent budget restrictions. The cars are supposed to be “formulated” thus designed within certain rules defined by FIA (Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile as in International Automobile Federation) to ensure that no team gets an unfair advantage. Now with the technological advancements the complexity in this motorsport has touched new heights.

Here is an excerpt from Walter Koster – famous F1 Journalist in his world famous “short” interview question to explain the complexity and F1 drivers dealing with it –

The question posed here is very important. Many of the innovations and technologies we see and use in our routine motor vehicles have emerged from the competitive motorsports like Formula 1. The technologies well known and common today like ABS (Anti-Lock or Anti-Skid Breaking System), Traction Control, Active Suspension, Advanced aerodynamics to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of power from power units, Hybrid power units, Incorporation of various sensors and using the data from such sensors to optimize the vehicles behavior are some of the notable examples. As newer and newer technologies are developing, F1 is getting more and more complex. Real F1 fans want exactly that in some sense. In this way the game is not only about racing on the circuit rather now it encompasses the initial car design, machine building, people management, policy management, finance and strategy on and off the racing circuit.

In this whole organized chaos what one must understand is the risks F1 driver faces while driving at such high speeds. One must understand that F1 cars are totally different from the cars that we use in our day-to-day life. The RPMs of F1 cars operate generally above 10000 RPM (for normal cars even the RPM of 2000- 4000 is really high), the highest speeds an F1 car can achieve is around 350 km/h to 390 km/h. The power rating of these F1 cars is around 1000 HP. The current engines used in an F1 car is 1.6L V6 engine. You must understand that a normal car with 1.6L engine has power rating of roughly 150 HP which is used in medium sized SUVs and family hatchbacks. The engineering marvel with which this high performance is extracted is one interesting topic in itself. With such machine and top speeds, for an F1 driver any moment missed during the blink of an eye can lead to a fatal injury, permanent disability and even instant death. F1 is also known for some serious injuries and fatalities. Hence, maintaining and improving the overall safety of everyone involved in the sports is important for FIA.

We will see one such simple yet effective design decision that FIA implemented in F1 which has saved many important and invaluable lives of the drivers in the recent times. That is the incorporation of Additional Frontal Protection (AFP) also known as Halo. It may sound exaggerated, but one can say that after the usage seat-belts, Halo is the second-best innovation which can be credited to immediately save many lives in F1 and its equivalent motorsports like F2, F3, IndyCar racing. It is also important to note that the incorporation of Halo was not an instant decision, rather FIA has always evolved and taken many decisions in improving the safety of the drivers in F1. Detachable headrest and padding and HANS are two notable decisions of them.

Formula 1 and Safety

If one looks back at the incident histories in F1, they will immediately realize that instant dangers are deeply rooted in the sports format itself. Ayrton Senna – 3 times world champion known as the greatest F1 driver in the history died from an accident in 1994 which triggered many safety decisions in F1. Senna’s Williams F1 car crashed into the concrete barrier at the speed of 304 km/h at Tamburello Corner of the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari in Imola, Italy. The lateral crash resulted in severe injuries and complete disfigurement of the car in crash. Stricter standards for helmets, changes in circuits to eliminate dangerous corners/ turns, changes in the circuit barriers, stringent impact tests with stringent tolerances, speed limits in the pit lanes and practice sessions were incorporated after this incident.

The story does not end here. In order to improve the safety further, in 1995 lateral crash tests were incorporated, by 1999 high cockpit heights to save the head injuries and wheel tethers to avoid the lose wheels flying off in crash were incorporated. By 2003, Head And Neck Support (HANS) device was made mandatory. Senna’s accident completely changed the safety regulations in F1 and this can also be seen in the reduced number of serious and major accidents in those times.     

HANS device mandated for F1 drivers

Need for Halo

In 2014, one incident shook the whole motorsport world. Jules Bianchi – an emerging F1 driver lost the control of his Marussia F1 car on Suzuka Circuit during 2014 Japanese Grand Prix. Due to unfavorable weather conditions – heavy rainfall his car lost grip and he crashed into a recovery vehicle which was trying to recover another crashed F1 car. Jules went into coma after suffering a diffused axonal injury and could not win the fight with death. After Senna’s loss in 1994 the world shook to the core with the loss of a young driver in 2014. The incident investigation demanded various changes in whole system and FIA realized the need for a closed cockpit-like solution to save the lives of drivers from frontal collisions.

FIA evaluated a closed canopy design like fighter jets and some tests were already ongoing in 2011-12. But the closed canopy had some practical limitations which prevented their immediate implementation in the F1 cars.

Limitations of the Closed Canopy-

  1. One can accept that the closed canopy will prevent the direct contact of projectiles from front on the drivers. The closed canopy will also relatively interfere less with the aerodynamics of the car. But when there will be need of instant extraction of driver during crash or internal fire, the canopy will increase the extraction time and would make the job of fire/ emergency marshals more difficult. According to the standards, driver should be extracted from the car within 7 seconds.
  2. An F1 car is just a machine, a wild animal with humongous power. Human controller brings that discipline, that life into such beastly machine. Driving in such extreme machine tests the human limits of the driver. The closed cockpit would limit all the airflow through the driver thereby making him more uncomfortable which would further increase the probability of incidents.

Closed canopy was tested in IndyCar designs with the help of Red Bull designers and engineers. The issue with the extraction was solved by keeping the canopy open from the top. But that does not address the issue fully. Even after keeping the canopy open from the top the airflow would anyways will be restricted to the driver. This issue was solved by nostril design of the canopy. Air intake gaps on the canopy’s leading edge would allow air inlet for the driver. Even some dedicated air channels were designed through the driver’s helmet to allow the airflow to ventilate driver sufficiently. IndyCar adopted these designs at first and there was still a long way for F1 to adopt these changes in their format.

IndyCar aeroscreen design with nostril

Problems and Challenges

The closed cockpit design faced big resistance in F1 due to some really obvious reasons. You cannot completely have a fully closed cockpit for immediate extraction of driver from cockpit. If one goes for top open i.e., aeroscreen cockpit, driver ventilation is one issue.

When dedicated ventilation is incorporated it will add extra weight and devices/instrumentation on car. Please note that F1 car designers are accounting for single gram of the extra weight of the vehicle. It is very common to go for the fastest lap attempt in the last lap of F1 racing only for the reason that the car bears lowest fuel weight and thereby lowest overall weight in the last laps providing more horsepower per gram to the car (now the cars are fueled only once in the whole race).

One more and the most important problem with the aeroscreen is the interference it would create in the aerodynamics of the car. The air intake of the F1 car engine just lies to the back and over the head of the driver. The aeroscreen canopy would not only affect and reduce the air input to the engine but it would also create the “dirty air” which results in the net performance reduction in the car.

To understand this, one should know that F1 car is not just about putting a high power unit in the low weight carbon composite car. When a car is running on the track with high speeds the air resistance is significantly higher, the car is literally punching a hole through the air. The car cutting through such high speeds bears the ability to literally get lifted and fly in the air with the same principle the an airplane takes off. According to Bernoulli’s principle if one creates net difference in the velocities of a fluid over a body it results in net pressure difference over the body. When this pressure difference becomes significant enough with the weight of the body it can provide lift to the body, it will cause the body to fly. As airplanes are designed to fly up, the F1 cars are designed to not fly up and remain glued to the track. This is done by creating down-force in the car. Simply put, its like rotating the wing of an airplane upside down to keep it glued down to the track instead of lifting up. More the down-force, more the car will remain glued to the track, more traction it will have which will make high speed turns on the cars possible. But down-force generation also comes with one design challenge called drag. When a continuous, uniform airflow is traveling over the car imparting net down-force the moment this steady-like airflow gets detached from the surface of the car it gets disturbed, turbulent air containing relatively high velocity loops of air or “eddies” are generated. This air turbulence is known as “the dirty air” in F1. Due to this, the air velocities at the back of the car become higher than the air velocities to the front of the car which creates net pressure difference thereby net low pressure zones are created behind the car. The car experiences a resisting force called “drag” which reduces the speed of the car. So, design of a good performing F1 car is always about finding that sweet spot of balance between down-force, drag and lift.

Now back to the cockpit design. The fully closed cockpit design ensures streamlined airflow over the car but it also compromises the extraction of the driver in emergency. If one puts aeroscreen cockpit in the car, the streamline passing over the would be disturbed before it even exits the overall car’s body. It will create a “wake” of air which will not be dense, streamlined thereby adding the drag to the car. It will reduce the speed of the car substantially. Please note that the differences of speeds and lap times in F1 are really close to the 10th of a second.

The biggest problem with incorporation of cockpits was related to the chaos in the aerodynamics of an F1 car which is one of the only things F1 teams can have larger overall control on. 

If such design standards are related to safety, then they are supposed to be mandatory to every team which would reduce the net speeds of all F1 cars thereby removing the thrill of the game, the soul of the sports. Hence everyone opposed this idea of open canopy cockpit – aeroscreen design.

The Emergence of Halo

After the tragic death of Jules Bianchi in 2014 FIA realized that the front-end protection is also important aspect to improve the overall safety in the motorsport. As FIA were already in the process of frontal protection from 2011-12 testing fighter jet level closed canopies, it became apparent that some immediate and more practical solution is required for the F1 cars. This resulted in the design of Halo.

A halo also known as additional frontal protection (AFP) is a hoop made from aerospace grade Titanium alloy – Grade 5 Titanium (an alloy of titanium with aluminum and vanadium) with has 3 joints to enable connection to the car. It was designed by Mercedes.

The parts of Halo (FIA Standard 8869-2018)

The halo weighs just 7 kg but can handle the loads of 12000-15000 kg (yes, those are 12-15 tons). Precisely speaking, according to FIA standard 8869-2018, a halo is made up of Ti6Al4V Grade 5 alloy weighing 7.0kg, +0.05kg, -0.15kg and should withstand quasi-static (simply put – slow and steady enough to seem unnoticeable movement) load of at least 125 kN with deflection less that 17.5 mm in Test 1 and deflection less that 45 mm in Test 2. (125 kN = 12.7464 metric ton, average weight of a Double-Decker bus). You have to understand that its not just about the integrity of the structure of halo. When halo is attached to the F1 car, the car chassis should also be able the withstand such loads transferred from the halo. Otherwise only halo would withstand the impact but the whole chassis may fail, resulting in many complicated failures, damage, injuries even fatality.

Test 1 with front load (Source – FIA Standard for AFP 8869-2018)
Test 2 with lateral load (Source – FIA Standard for AFP 8869-2018)

Halo is a standard supply part meaning that everyone must have the same part in their car obtained from the FIA certified and approved manufacturer. No modification is allowed on halo.

Mercedes AMG W08 F1 car in 2017 without halo
Mercedes AMG W09 F1 car in 2018 with halo

Challenges with Halo

The biggest outburst from F1 fans, F1 teams, F1 designers/ engineers and even F1 drivers for halo was due the reason that it is the ugliest part of the F1 car. Many said that it destroys the whole look, beauty of the car.

Second and more practical reason to resist halo was the disturbance in the aerodynamics of the car. Though the disturbances in airflow are lesser than the canopy it still meddles with the performance of the car in total. The top hoop of the halo disturbs the airflow creating a wake of dirty air over the rear wing thereby increasing the drag on car and reduced speeds.

Drag Reduction System (DRS) became less effective due to incorporation of halo. DRS consists of a moving flap on the rear wing of the car which alters the airflow over the rear end of car thus when this flap is lifts up while the car is on straights the down-force thereby drag on car is reduced hence gaining the speed.

When the DRS flap lifts up the drag on the car is reduced.
(Source- See reference 8)
DRS in action

Now due to the incorporation of halo, the streamlined airflow which was expected to get extended over the rear wing of the car during the DRS was already getting disturbed thereby making the DRS less effective. (F1 fans know the madness and thrill of chase upon DRS activation on straights of the circuits)

Halo messes with the streamline flow over the DRS on tail and engine intake. You can see in this image the streamlined – parallel airflow lines are disturbed due to halo’s leading edge causing eddies (Source- See reference 7)

Third reason for resisting halo was the obstruction in the vision of an F1 driver. The central pylon of the halo connects just in front of the eyesight of the driver. Such immediate frontal obstruction in vision is big red alarm for everyone. The implementation of halo was tested in 2017 free practice session and every driver hated it as it was the immediate blockage in vision. Still the updated 2018 FIA standards mandated installation of halo.

One design to save them all

Despite the negative reception, halo has proved its effectiveness right from its year of implementation.

In 2018 Belgian Grand Prix on the circuit of Spa. Fernando Alonso’s McLaren car rolled over Charles Leclerc’s Sauber F1 car. The possible direct impact of rear tire and read wing would have caused permanent neck damage or possible death to Charles but it didn’t happen due to the protection from halo. According the simulations from the data of the accelerometers and other sensors from the cars, the impact force was of 56 kN (5.7 ton of weight)

Damaged air fairing in inset, halo remained undamaged during the crash. Simulated tire contact from Alonso’s car on Leclerc’s helmet eye-shield that halo saved in second inset image

In the same year in an F2 race in Catalunya, Spain Tadasuke Makino’s life was saved during the accidental crash landing of rival car.

Halo prevented the contact of sweeping rear end with Makino’s head

In 2019, F3 race in Monza, Italy Alex Peroni’s car went airborne, flipped in the air, rotated thrice and car landed upside down on his head. If it was not for halo, Alex would have been dead, the impact was directly on his head if halo wouldn’t have provided the barrier.

We do have flying cars. Peroni’s car landed on the halo part during crash and saved him from severe injuries

In 2020, Romain Grosjean driving Haas F1 car directly crashed into the barrier in Bahrain Grand Prix. The crash was so dangerous that it split the car in two pieces which was nearly impossible for a modern Formula 1 car. The collision was head on from the front end of the car. Romain experience 53 G force when he crashed through the barrier at the speed of 250 km/h. The halo protected his head from such intense front collision. People called it a miracle of god but it was one safety decision evolved from simple yet effective engineering solution which saved a man’s invaluable life from an unimaginable incident.

The impact so powerful that it split the modern F1 car in two. The halo saved Grosjean’s life from from powerful front crash into barrier. The man on fire emerging from the yellow fire can be seen here.

In 2021, Max Verstappen’s Red Bull F1 car crash landed over Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes F1 car. The Red Bull car’s rear tire (or tyre) literally traveled over Lewis’s head. The halo prevented this direct contact otherwise it was definitely for 7 times world champion’s neck and life.

The halo that saved 7 times world champion

In 2021, in W Series qualifying session at Spa, Belgium a really weird accident caused 6 cars to pile up within few seconds. In this multiple collision pile up the halo of Sarah Moore’s car deflected a flying wheel saving her life from instant impact. In the same incident Beitske Visser’s car landed on the halo upside down which saved her life. Belen Garcia was also saved from frontal impact in this crash.

Moore’s head saved from loose tire contact
Garcia saved from the contact with loose tire from front
Visser saved from multiple flips and dangerous landing on head

In 2022, British F2 race in Silverstone the car of Denis Haugher’s car went airborne, just like a vehicle jumping off a ramp on a corner and it went cross through the car of Roy Nissany’s head. The halo experienced side impact and only because of the implementation of halo Roy Nissany was saved from literal decapitation. It was a great save only due to halo.

Nissany’s stars were bright on this ramp flight contact

In 2022, British Grand Prix at Silverstone, in the start and the first corner of the first lap Pierre Gasly’s Alfa Tauri F1 Car touched George Russel’s Mercedes F1 car on rear which resulted in his crash with Zhou Guanyu’s Alfa Romeo F1 car. The crash caused the Zhou’s car to flip upside down and in the same orientation the car went off track skidding only on the support of the halo over the gravel till the barriers. Zhou did not suffer any injury and was safe in all this accident, as if nothing happened.   

Guanyu’s crash tested halo from all possible angles. Halo was the angel which brought him back from the doors of death.

Are design decisions all about aesthetics?

Here are some highlights of halo-

Halo solved most of the problems related to the closed canopy and aeroscreen.

There is no moving part in halo thereby eliminating the unpredictable failures in extreme cases.

The problem of visual obstruction was more related to the development of habit in drivers. We can see our own nose with our own eyes (which is relatively easy to check for people with big and pointy nose) when we make a conscious attempt to see it. Our brain is normally ignoring our nose in routine vision. When you hold a pencil in front of your face and close, if you try to focus on distant objects the eyes can see what there is behind the pencil too. As if the pencil doesn’t exist. In the same sense drivers became comfortable with halo’s obstruction after some learning curve.

Regarding the aerodynamics, FIA is always in development to establish new design standards to maintain competitiveness in the sports. FIA in 2022 established some design changes to enable close chases between cars. Air fairing is allowed over halo, so teams have found out the ways to minimize the dirty air created due to halo.

FIA allows air-fairing to reduce the dirty air from halo

The implementation of halo was one of the most resisted decisions of the famous and important motorsport like F1. The reasons behind halo’s rejection seemed fair until it proved its effectiveness. Halo saved at least 10 lives in three years immediately. FIA simulation analysis predicted that there would be 1 incident in 1 – 2 years where halo will play key role. After such incidents in series, it became clear that halo is the life saver.

The major backlash for halo was for the reason that it would mess with the aesthetics of the F1 cars. F1 cars are known for their slick aesthetics. But there is more to it. The slickness, sophistication in an F1 car is not just about its design looks or its visual beauty it is also about the functional design. For a design to become perfect, there should always be some intent for certain part to remain there. The implementation of halo and the developments that resulted it show us some really interesting ideas about what a design should be. Development of halo also shows that the process to design a simple yet effective engineering piece is really complex, rigorous, thoughtful, precise and continuously evolving process.  

The story of evolution of halo in F1 tells us about the minimalist and functional design for safety. Not even single part of halo is in excess, unnecessary or unwanted. The designers and engineers deserve special recognition for saving important lives and maintain the spirit of the sport. Maybe halo is truly the best design and safety decision after the design of seat belt. And there will always be scope for evolution and improvements. Given that the simplest, most effective design of halo is to stay forever in motorsports like F1, whatever comes after halo will be and has to be groundbreaking.     

The precious lives that halo saved:

The story of evolution of halo in F1 tells us about the minimalist and functional design for safety. Not even single part of halo is in excess, unnecessary or unwanted. The designers and engineers deserve special recognition for saving important lives and maintain the spirit of the sport.

Starting from left – Charles Leclerc, Tadasuke Makino, Alex Peroni, Romain Grosjean, Lewis Hamilton, Sarah Moore, Beitske Visser, Belen Garcia, Roy Nissany, Zhou Guanyu.

References and further reading:

  1. Ferdinand Porsche
  2. FIA Standard 8869-2018 SINGLE-SEATER ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PROTECTION – HALO
  3. 2018 FORMULA ONE TECHNICAL REGULATIONS
  4. 2023 FORMULA ONE TECHNICAL REGULATIONS
  5. Technical F 1 Dictionary
  6. A Critical Review of the ‘Halo’ Device in Formula One by Charmian Monroe – Oxford Brookes University
  7. Effect of Halo Protection Device on the Aerodynamic Performance of Formula Racecar by Mark Lin, Periklis Papadopoulos, International Journal of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering  Vol:14, No:1, 2020
  8. Aerodynamic Study of a Drag Reduction System and Its Actuation System for a Formula Student Competition Car, Loução, R.; Duarte, G.O.; Mendes, M.J.G.C., Fluids, 2022, 7, 309. https://doi.org/10.3390/fluids7090309
  9. Crash images from telecasts of F1, F2, F3 and W series

Dune’s Ornithopters and Biomimicry

I recently watched Denis Villeneuve’s Dune in theater. The movie is a visual masterpiece. I would say it is a dark chocolate for eyes rather than eye candy. The character development is more visual and not just a general exposition. The most fascinating things in the dune universe are the equipment, machinery, tools which do not involve a computer intelligence to control or maneuver. Impressive thing is that the technology shown in the universe of dune, looks futuristic but people, their culture, beliefs, politics, religion remains frozen in the time. It seems the harshness and difficulty of living has made the advanced technology shed its attractive- rather ‘showpiece’ aspects and only the utilitarian aspects of technology are maintained forever. Here, the technology is truly representing as a tool of people.

One of the things from ‘the Duniverse’ that intrigued me is ‘the Ornithopters’. When I saw them taking flight, the only thing that came into my mind was ‘Hummingbird’. Ornithopters are the helicopters equivalents on Arrakis- the desert planet. The ornithopters on Arrakis are six or eight winged flying pods which look like dragonflies, in fact Denis Villeneuve intended their design in that way. They fly by flapping their wings like hummingbird and have far better maneuvering abilities that a normal helicopter. They can glide way better due to their aerodynamic dragonfly-like shape. Here, the technology draws inspiration from the nature. Hummingbirds are the birds which can fly backwards, side-ways and downwards; they can do somersaults and are better in long term hovering compared to other birds.

Ornithopters in Denis Villeneuve’s Dune

There are many examples in real life especially in technology, where inspiration is drawn from the nature. Inspirations from nature are taken to solve the design problems and is known as Biomimicry or Biomimetics. The word is self-explanatory- ‘Bio’ means nature and ‘mimicry’ means imitation, enactment, copying.

Popular example of biomimicry is the design of bullet train. The engineers were facing problem of sonic booms when the train entered through a tunnel with high speed. The engineers solved the problem by designing the front end of the train similar to the Kingfisher’s beak. The inspiration was drawn from a picture of kingfisher diving into the pond for fishing. When a kingfisher dives for fish, there is no splashing on the water surface. The picture is captured just at the moment when beak of the bird enters the surface of water. In order to execute a successful fish hunt, the entry through the water must remain swift; For proper target there should not be splashing of water because undisturbed water surface will have more clarity. Same phenomena, functionality was implemented in the design of the bullet train.

‘The Shinkansen’- Bullet train

Lotus effect is also one good example of bio-mimicry. We all know the water repellent properties of lotus leaves, lily leaves. Two German botanists namely Wilhelm Barthlott and Christoph Neinhuis were studying highly magnified plant leaves. At high magnification of 1-20 nano-meters magnification, even a speck of dust can ruin the image. The botanists realized that there was no special need of sample cleaning for the lotus leaves samples. Upon detailed studies they found out that, there were two features contributing to the cleanliness of the leaves. One was the layer of wax, which is obvious for everyone. The second and the most unexpected feature was the presence of micro bumps on the surface. These small bumps trap air which creates higher contact angle between water and leaf surface. The water drop literally becomes spherical on these bumps as the air trapped between the bumps is pushing the water film inwards and surface tension is helping more and more to the formation of curvature.       

Lotus Effect

This effect was replicated using negative- positive molding processes for the preparation of Self-cleaning surfaces. It is like molding a wax statue but the here the technique is precise to microscopic scale. Self cleaning paints are getting introduced in the market recently.

Main thing to understand is that, not everything we derive from the nature could be called as biomimicry. Biomimicry is more about functionality of the design. Giving wings to a machine to fly won’t be called as a biomimicry, it will be called as a ‘Bio-inspired design’. A Bio-inspired design is more inclusive term which covers Biomimicry (functions like nature), Bio-morphism (as in more similar in looks with nature) and Bio-utilization (uses nature as an agency). In the case of the ornithopters, it is the higher pivot providing design of the wings. The hummingbirds have these wings with highest pivot angle between wings and shoulders which enables them to maneuver exceptionally.

Hummingbird have wings with high pivot angle

There is one organization focusing on the Biomimicry. The ‘Biomimicry Institute’ is a non-profit organization striving for bringing people together to solve the problems using biomimicry. Nature itself is running the largest laboratory for billions of years and we can look for solutions to our problem by just asking one simple question- ‘How would nature solve this?’ Janine Benyus– Cofounder of Biomimicry Institute popularized biomimicry. Her TED talk is available on the institute’s website- biomimicry.org. You should visit the website to explore more.

Biomimicry has made us realize that nature is the largest library that humans can ever have. Its conservation is not just important for the sustenance, but it can highly contribute to the technological advancements of humanity. Whenever we are losing a species, we are losing an immense source of knowledge which was result of millions-billions years of nature’s research. The thought itself can bring us closer to nature- natural resources and its conservation. Biomimicry will create more pro-nature solutions to the problems. Sometimes modern problems require bio-mimicked solutions! (Yes, I did that ;D)

For further explorations just google these:

  • biomimicry.org
  • How a steppe eagle’s wingtip solved Airbus A380 Wake Turbulence problem – Richard Hammond’s Engineering Connections- Airbus A380 documentary by National Geographic
  • Gecko’s feet and surface adhesion
  • Lotus effect and self-cleaning paints
  • Invention of Velcro

Further reading:

  1. Dune : Philosophy in Science Fiction
  2. Dune : Psychology in Science Fiction